U.S. advertising spending is now expected to grow 12.3 percent in 2026, according to an updated forecast released by the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) late last week.
The figure is an increase from the 9.5 percent growth that IAB first projected in January. The 2.8-point increase is rooted in a stronger-than-expected first half of the year, helped by major live events including the Winter Olympics and FIFA World Cup, along with easing concerns about the economy among advertisers, IAB said in a statement.
Social media is expected to post the strongest growth at 16.5 percent, up from 14.6 percent in January. Connected television is projected to grow 15.6 percent, compared with an earlier forecast of 13.8 percent, while commerce media is expected to rise 13.6 percent, up from 12.1 percent.
Linear TV is the only major channel in the study expected to decline, with spending projected to fall 1.5 percent this year. That is slightly better than the 1.7 percent decline IAB forecast in January.
“The first half was strong, major live events delivered, and advertisers have increasingly powerful tools in their arsenal to find and engage customers,” IAB CEO David Cohen said in a statement.
The updated study is based on responses from more than 200 brand and agency ad investment decision-makers.
Customer acquisition was cited by 63 percent of buyers, up nine percentage points since January. Brand equity rose six points to 43 percent, while repeat purchases held relatively steady at 24 percent.
Artificial intelligence is also reshaping media planning and measurement: Adapting to changing consumer behavior, including AI-driven search, was cited as the top media investment challenge by 44 percent of buyers. Concern over low-quality AI-generated content followed at 38 percent.
Seventy-six percent of respondents said they are increasing focus on optimizing content for AI-generated answers, while 72 percent are focusing more on large language models. Another 69 percent said they are increasing their use of generative AI in media campaigns.
IAB said 86 percent of buyers are already changing, or expect to change, how they measure media performance because of conversational AI tools and AI agents over the next year.
Among those responses, 48 percent said they are measuring brand visibility and citations directly within AI platforms, while 45 percent said their biggest challenge is comparing AI-driven customer journeys with traditional ones.
