Key Points
- WARC Media forecasts global ad spend will rise 8.9 percent to $1.19 trillion this year, with the U.S. contributing more than one third of total investment.
- Digital channels and retail media continue driving North American growth, even as platforms like TikTok and Reddit remain far smaller than Meta in overall revenue.
- WARC says economic pressures are widening a two-speed ad market, with fast-growing sectors and smaller advertisers concentrating budgets in measurable, digital-first environments.
The global advertising market is expected to grow 8.9 percent this year to $1.19 trillion, with the United States and broader North American region continuing to anchor worldwide expansion, according to a new report published by WARC Media on Thursday.
The intelligence firm upgraded its 2025 forecast by 1.5 percentage points, citing strong performance from major digital platforms and limited fallout from geopolitical trade tensions. The firm now expects global spending to rise 9.1 percent in 2026 to $1.30 trillion and an additional 7.9 percent in 2027, pushing the market to $1.40 trillion, double the size recorded during the pandemic downturn in 2020.
The U.S., which remains the world’s largest advertising market, continues to account for more than a third of all global spend. Advertisers are projected to invest $421.1 billion this year, an 8.9 percent increase driven by resilient digital budgets and expanding retail media categories. Growth is expected to accelerate next year to 7 percent, lifted by the men’s FIFA World Cup and Congressional midterm elections.
By 2027, U.S. spend is forecast to reach $479.4 billion, WARC projected.
Most incremental ad dollars in North America are flowing to measurable digital channels, including retail media networks, paid search and social platforms. Retail media now accounts for nearly 14.7 percent of global ad spend, with categories such as clothing and accessories directing more than 80 percent of budgets toward retail, search and social environments.
While TikTok and Reddit are gaining share, their revenue remains well below the scale of the dominant platforms. TikTok is on track to generate $12 billion in U.S. ad revenue this year and $45.2 billion globally by 2027, less than one fifth of Meta’s projected ad earnings.
WARC’s research also highlights a growing disconnect between advertising investment and broader economic health. Real wage stagnation, persistent inflation and elevated interest rates have softened consumer demand, pushing many marketers to rely more heavily on pricing power and brand-building.
More than half of marketers with expanding budgets expect to increase brand investment next year, according to WARC’s Voice of the Marketer study.
Despite economic uncertainty, the concentration of digital-native budgets, trade marketing migration into measurable channels and the continued rise of retail media have reinforced a two-speed system, WARC says. Traditional categories remain largely stable, while fast-growing sectors and small and mid-sized advertisers channel disproportionate spending into major platforms, accelerating the structural shift of ad dollars across North America.
The Global Ad Trends report is available to view by WARC Media clients by clicking or tapping here.
